TFAP
Tokyo Forum For Analytic Philosophy
Program
TBA
Speaker: Alan Baker
From: Swarthmore College
URL: https://www.swarthmore.edu/profile/alan-baker
Abstract: TBA
TBA
Speaker: Chris Letheby
From: University of Western Australia
URL: https://research-repository.uwa.edu.au/en/persons/chris-letheby/
Abstract: TBA
Bayesian Confirmation Without the Problems of Old Evidence and Circularity
Speaker: Frank Zenker
From: Nankai University
URL: https://phil.nankai.edu.cn/enn/2023/0301/c29847a505408/page.htm
Abstract: Bayesian Confirmation Theory faces two core challenges: the Problem of Old
Evidence, where known data fails to incrementally confirm a hypothesis, and the Circularity
Problem, where defining confirmation via posterior probabilities presupposes the very belief
state being evaluated. This paper dissolves both problems by defining confirmation through the
Likelihood Ratio, grounded in an agent’s hypothetical prior probability distribution—their
evidence-independent reasoning commitments. Because contingent evidence has a probability
between 0 and 1 in this prior distribution, the old evidence retains its actualized confirmational
power without counterfactual assumptions. Furthermore, because LR relies exclusively on
likelihoods, it avoids circularity by operating independently of posterior probabilities or initial
priors. Beyond resolving historical paradoxes, this framework provides a principled criterion for
scientific pursuitworthiness, allowing researchers to assess an experiment's potential epistemic
value prior to gathering data.
TBA
Speaker: Tomoya Kubota
From: University of Tokyo
URL: https://researchmap.jp/kubotatomoya?lang=en
Abstract: TBA
TBA
Speaker: Diana Craciun
From: University College London & Human Abilities Center, Berlin
URL: https://www.dianacraciun.co.uk
Abstract: TBA
TBA
Speaker: Gurpreet Rattan
From: University of Toronto
URL: https://discover.research.utoronto.ca/5751-gurpreet-rattan/about
Abstract: TBA
TBA
Speaker: Sam Clarke
From: University of Southern California
URL: https://sampclarke.net/
Abstract: TBA